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2012 Fantasy Baseball Undervalued 3B
View the RotoChamp 3B Rankings and Projections
The following is a list of players that we think are undervalued in 5x5 standard leagues based on their ADP (courtesy of MockDraftCentral).
These are the players we would target on draft day. We try to show players that will go early, middle, and late to give you the most flexibility when picking at this position. We also indicate at which pick you should start thinking
about picking the player.
Where are all the sleepers ???? - OK...where are all the sleepers at 3B? When we starting researching this position, we uncovered a strange phenonomen. There just isn't any decent early-mid round sleepers at 3B.
Why? There is a huge amount of depth at this postion in 2012. We assume that Miggy and Hanley will be 3B eligible in most leagues by the end of April, so we did our valuations accordingly.
We have Alex Rodriguez as our 12th ranked 3B in a 12 man league. Look at the names ahead of him: Miggy, Bautista, Longoria, Hanley, Sandoval, Young, Lawrie, Beltre, Zimmerman, Aramis, and Wright. That's a pretty
stacked list. There's even some decent guys below him like Youkilis, Freese, and Mark Reynolds.
When you have this much depth at a position, it brings the values down a bit. But, the ADPs of these guys still reflect a community feeling that 3B is a shallow position. Therefore, most of these guys are overvalued.
So how do you gain an advantage when picking a 3B this year? I think the key is not overpaying/overdrafting a guy. Here are the players that are most fairly valued:
Jose Bautista (1st round)- We have him ranked 7th overall and he's going around 5th in most mock drafts. I don't think I can take him over Pujols, Miggy, Braun, or Kemp, but I don't have a problem snagging
him with any pick after those guys. He's 31 and you think he might slow down, but his plate discipline got even better last year than 2011 and his OPS actually improved on his 54 HR campaign. The Jays have an
even better lineup this year with the addition of Lawrie, so we would expect him to maintain his 2011 levels and provide 1st round value.
Brett Lawrie (early rounds, 45+) - He's the only 3B in our top 12 that has a higher ranking (45) than his ADP (55). It makes me a little nervous to recommend a guy
at a stacked position for the early rounds, epecially when Lawrie only has 150 ABs under his belt, but his 2011 debut was very impressive. We are not alone in projecting a 20-20 season, ZIPS and FanGraphs
fans also see the same potential. Lawrie's biggest problem is that he plays the game so hard that he might run himself into an injury (or get plunked after excessive celebration). He's going
to be a guy you will hate if he's on somebody else's team, but you'll love his cockiness if he's filling up the stat sheet for you.
Mike Moustakas (mid-late rounds, 200+) - Moustakas was a huge prospect coming into 2011 and he disappointed to large degree. Everybody talked about his power in the minors (36 HRs in 2010), yet
he was only able to knock 5 out of the yard in 338 major leagues ABs. We think he's more likely to return to his 2010 form, now that he has had a taste of the majors. We are talking
about a 30 HR potential on a Royals team that is on the upswing. He's valued at 190, but he is going about 30 spots later in mock drafts, making him great value compared to all the
overvalued 3B in this year's crop. He's the poster boy for a post-hype sleeper.
Brent Morel (late rounds, 280+) - Brent who? Some of your leaguemates have probably never heard of this guy, but he hit 8 of his 10 HRs in the last month of the season for the White Sox.
He's only 24 so the power should still be developing. Is he a 25 HR guy? Probably, not, but the same was said about Jose Bautista before his breakout. Let's not get too excited, he's not Bautista. However,
he did post an xBA (expected batting average) of .303 last year, which made him one of the unluckiest guys in the majors last year. He's starting to get a little press from some of the
other fantasy sites and for good reason.
Mat Gamel (late rounds, 280+) - Gamel has pretty much sucked when given the chance over the last 3 seasons with the Brewers. He looked destined for the 3B slot in 2009
before Casey McGahee came out of nowhere to post career numbers. Ever since, Gamel has been blocked and has toiled away in the minors. Actually, he hasn't toiled, he's raked to the tune
of 28 HRs and a .310 average in AAA last year. With Prince gone, Gamel should take over the spot at 1B, but is eligible for 3B in most leagues. Don't be surprised at a .275+ average with 20 HRs.
Late Round Flyer
Chris Davis (BAL)
- At one time, Chris Davis was hot on everybody's fantasy radar, but high strikeout totals and multiple trips back to the minors have made him a forgotten man.
Last year he hit a gaudy .372 with 24 HRs in only 199 ABs in the PCL league. We know he can hit HRs, and if you can accept that he'll strikeout nearly 30% of the time, he's not a bad
late round flyer. There won't be many undrafted guys who hit 30 HRs and Davis could be one of them.
2012 Sleepers - C
2012 Sleepers - 1B
2012 Sleepers - 2B
2012 Sleepers - SS
2012 Sleepers - 3B
2012 Sleepers - OF
2012 Sleepers - Pitchers