Key Stats: Jacoby Ellsbury stole 70 bases in 2009 en route to being one of the twenty most valuable players in fantasy baseball that season. Only Jose Reyes (2007) stole more in any one season over the last decade. Ellsbury missed most of last year, but unlike Reyes he did not have an injury to his leg. The 70 steal potential is alive and well for 2011.
Skeptics Say: Many people point to Adrian Beltre's numbers last season and proclaim that he was the team's MVP. Others simply point to what he did to Ellsbury's ribs on April 11th and say he owed it to the team after effectively ending the season for the team's leadoff hitter.
While we did not learn in the weeks after that collision that Ellsbury had suffered multiple broken ribs, Red Sox fans, players, and even management questioned his toughness. Ellsbury hasn't played in a game since August 13th, so by now his injuries have healed but what about the mental aspects of the injury. Will the Red Sox look to move him at some point? Will Ellsbury come back more timid to try to stay healthy? Depending on how you view the situation, the 2009 season is an ancient memory.
Projection: As Pat Casey, Ellsbury's coach at Oregon State, put it earlier this offseason, "You got a guy that has pretty much gone throughout his career without an injury." Let's write off last season as a loss and start over in 2011. Ellsbury is a low risk, and as you see below, a high reward.
114 R 6 HR 56 RBI 59 SB .288 AVG .755 OPS