Key Stats: Price was one of the 15 starters with an ERA under 3 in 2010, posting a fantastic 2.72 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. Throughout 2010, I was waiting for the other shoe to drop. His ERA was much lower than his FIP (fielding independent ERA) throughout the entire season and before the fantasy trade deadline, I unloaded him thinking that Price's best months were behind him. I wasn’t completely right. Price "struggled" in July with a 4.24 ERA, but rallied at the end of the season with a great 1.67 ERA in September. His September success was due in part to his improved control (2.86 BB/9 in September). Even in his worst months, Price was able to post strong K/9 rates and was always able to keep the ball in the park. His 0.65 HR/9 (15 all year) was very low and his high walk rate were largely the causes for his high FIP. Judging from his historicals, there’s no indication to indicate that a jump in this number is likely. Despite exhibiting just average control, it seems that his low homerun allowed rate is sustainable, so Price appears to not be a one year fluke – he legitimately has the talent to be an ace.

Skeptics Say: The biggest reason give pause in drafting Price is that Price threw 221.1 total innings (regular season and playoff) in 2010, whereas he only threw 169.2 total innings in 2009. In 2010, Price was 24 and had a 30.6% increase in innings pitched. This has Verducci Effect written all over it. Can Price maintain his strong mid-90s fastball and continue developing his curve? This largely depends on Price’s health. If he begins to experience any health issues, a decreased fastball with just his average control are the recipes for a very mediocre season. Health and his ability to adjust will be two things to watch carefully for.

Projection: Some regression will likely occur due to wear and tear on his arm, but no other peripheral stats indicate that Price was playing over his head.

13 wins 3.45 ERA 1.23 WHIP 179 K in 205 innings